Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.122044 0.137115 0.153377 0.172239 0.193527 0.216827 0.244282
2025-12-07 0.091294 0.109671 0.130908 0.157302 0.189281 0.226844 0.274422
2025-12-14 0.071796 0.091612 0.115976 0.148218 0.189896 0.242135 0.312862
2025-12-21 0.057726 0.077893 0.104156 0.141009 0.191631 0.259078 0.356353
2025-12-28 0.049175 0.069937 0.098480 0.140821 0.202440 0.289479 0.422869
2026-01-04 0.041272 0.061636 0.091083 0.137093 0.207790 0.313311 0.484615
2026-01-11 0.035584 0.055646 0.086075 0.136021 0.216841 0.344001 0.562186
2026-01-18 0.031354 0.051213 0.082725 0.136934 0.229091 0.381600 0.657610
2026-01-25 0.026462 0.044983 0.075616 0.130641 0.228559 0.398386 0.721410
2026-02-01 0.022291 0.039331 0.068630 0.123441 0.225266 0.409874 0.777987
2026-02-08 0.019294 0.035275 0.063792 0.119256 0.226650 0.429864 0.854045
2026-02-15 0.016722 0.031613 0.059129 0.114655 0.226476 0.446857 0.927420
2026-02-22 0.015212 0.029781 0.057705 0.116278 0.239213 0.492142 1.069838
2026-03-01 0.013229 0.026748 0.053550 0.111820 0.238914 0.511099 1.160341
2026-03-08 0.011752 0.024519 0.050679 0.109581 0.242990 0.540190 1.280122
2026-03-15 0.010484 0.022542 0.048042 0.107430 0.246930 0.569796 1.407804
2026-03-22 0.009746 0.021592 0.047449 0.109738 0.261494 0.626485 1.614507
2026-03-29 0.008841 0.020143 0.045551 0.108727 0.268019 0.665261 1.784201
2026-04-05 0.008152 0.019090 0.044400 0.109324 0.278660 0.716337 1.998768
2026-04-12 0.007615 0.018317 0.043794 0.111176 0.292884 0.779441 2.261937
2026-04-19 0.006786 0.016720 0.040980 0.106938 0.290245 0.797052 2.397077
2026-04-26 0.006002 0.015129 0.037964 0.101694 0.283962 0.803525 2.500518
2026-05-03 0.005420 0.013977 0.035904 0.098722 0.283604 0.826994 2.663471